News

The Center for Infrastructure Economics and Delo Group Release Analytical Report on Russian Trade Prospects to 2040

The Center for Infrastructure Economics (CEI), together with the Delo Group of Companies, presented an analytical report titled “Russian Trade at the Crossroads of Global Change: What to Prepare for and What to Focus On” during Transport Week 2025.

The report outlines key global trends that will shape the foreign trade agenda in the coming decades and provides an outlook for Russia’s trade development through 2040. According to the study, centers of economic growth are shifting toward the countries of the Global South — primarily India, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. These regions are expected to account for over 80% of new global demand, making them priority destinations for Russia’s foreign economic strategy.

According to estimates by the Center for Infrastructure Economics and Delo Group, Russian exports are projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.1% between 2025 and 2040, assuming baseline conditions. Non-energy exports are expected to expand more rapidly (2.6% compared to 0.5% for fuel and energy), although potential remains for further growth in raw material exports. The most promising export niches include chemical products, grains, machinery and transport equipment, fertilizers, non-ferrous metals, and natural gas.

The report notes that the share of “friendly” countries in Russia’s physical exports has already exceeded 85%, up from 44% in 2021. However, the commodity structure of exports remains heavily weighted toward raw materials, underscoring the need to transition from an extensive export model to one focused on priority markets and higher value-added processing.

Particular attention is given to factors of global uncertainty — geopolitical, technological, and institutional. The authors emphasize that trade policies of leading economies are becoming increasingly instrumental and assertive, while global markets are growing more fragmented and less predictable. Modern trade is shifting from simple goods exchange to competition for roles in new production and logistics chains. For Russia, identifying emerging growth points early and securing positions in new markets will be crucial.

“The global economy is undergoing profound transformation. Technological, energy, and geopolitical shifts are reshaping not only the contours of global trade, but also the principles behind the emerging logistics architecture. Under these circumstances, Russia must not only adapt to new realities, but also seize opportunities to strengthen its position in international markets,” said Vladimir Kosoy, President of the Center for Infrastructure Economics.

“In an environment of high uncertainty and volatility, we are seeing a new geometry of cargo flows take shape. Understanding the speed and scale of these changes — and the readiness of government authorities, logistics companies, shippers, and financial institutions to respond — will enable informed management decisions and the creation of a suitable infrastructure framework. As a supply chain operator, we are deeply engaged in discussions around trade volume forecasts and shifting origins and destinations of cargo, which helps us identify bottlenecks and develop competitive, world-class logistics solutions,” said Maxim Shishkov, Director of Strategic Marketing at Delo Group. < Back to list